How HVACFIND prices HVAC work
Where every number comes from, how a local price range is built, what the confidence labels mean, and what the model can't know.
2026Q4.2
Price Index version
updated every quarter
387
Metros priced
one by one
P20–P80
The range we print
most jobs land inside it
The short version
For each job we start from national line items: the equipment, the hours of labor, the materials, the permit and the haul-away. Then we move each line to local prices: labor by what HVAC technicians earn in that metro, materials by regional prices, the permit by local fee schedules. The sum is a range, not a single number, because real quotes vary.
Sources
| What | Source |
|---|---|
| HVAC technician wages by metro | BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, SOC 49-9021 (May 2025) |
| Regional price levels | BEA Regional Price Parities (2024) |
| Climate | NOAA 1991–2020 climate normals; IECC 2021 climate zones (PNNL) |
| Homes: age, fuel, size | Census American Community Survey (ACS 5-year 2020-2024) |
| HVAC businesses | Census County Business Patterns, NAICS 238220 (2023) |
| Income limits for rebates | HUD Income Limits (FY2026) |
| Equipment models | ENERGY STAR certified product data |
| Energy prices | EIA residential electricity and natural gas prices |
| National line items | Published 2025–2026 cost guides and manufacturer price guides, reconciled by hand |
How a range is built
- Each line item has a low, typical and high national value, read as roughly the 10th, 50th and 90th percentile.
- Labor scales with the local HVAC wage against the national median; materials with the regional goods price level; equipment only partly, because it is priced nationally.
- Home size sets the capacity: about 2, 3 or 4 tons, nudged up in hot climates and down in cold ones.
- Efficiency starts at the regional minimum set by the Department of Energy; cold climates start at condensing furnaces and cold-climate heat pumps.
- The items are combined into one distribution and published as P20, P50 and P80: 'most jobs' is the middle 60%, 'typical' is the median.
Confidence
Where we only have the model, pages say 'Model estimate' and the quote check uses softer words. As people add anonymous prices from real quotes and invoices, those observations pull the model toward what is actually being charged, and the label changes to 'Some local prices' and then 'Local prices'. The number of observations is always shown.
What the model can't know
- Your home: ductwork condition, electrical capacity, access to the attic or crawlspace.
- The contractor's overhead, warranty terms and how busy they are this week.
- Brand premiums beyond the three tiers we model.
Sources
- BLS OEWS — https://www.bls.gov/oes/
- BEA Regional Price Parities — https://www.bea.gov/data/prices-inflation/regional-price-parities-state-and-metro-area
- NOAA climate normals — https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/us-climate-normals
- Census ACS — https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs
- Census County Business Patterns — https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/cbp.html
- ENERGY STAR data — https://data.energystar.gov
Second opinion
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Tell us the job and when suits you. We confirm by phone or text, then pass your request to one licensed contractor who covers your ZIP. Nobody else gets your number.
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